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Preflop All-In Matchups: Equities Every Player Should Know
Coin flips, dominated hands and pair-over-pair: exact all-in equities for the preflop matchups that decide most big pots in Hold'em.
By PokerLevelUp Team · · 4 min read
When the chips go in before the flop, the result comes down to a handful of standard matchups. You don’t need to memorise hundreds of numbers — just the six or seven patterns below. Every figure here is exact: each matchup was calculated over all 1,712,304 possible boards with our odds calculator. Ties count as half a win.
The patterns
| Matchup | Example | Equity |
|---|---|---|
| Pair vs smaller pair | A♠A♥ vs K♦K♣ | 81% / 19% |
| Pair vs two overcards (“coin flip”) | Q♦Q♣ vs A♠K♥ | 57% / 43% |
| Pair vs one overcard | J♠J♥ vs A♦9♣ | 72% / 28% |
| Pair vs two undercards | J♠J♥ vs 9♦8♦ | 80% / 20% |
| Two overcards vs two undercards | A♠K♥ vs J♦T♦ | 59% / 41% |
| Dominated: shared card, worse kicker | A♠K♥ vs A♦Q♣ | 74% / 26% |
| Big hand vs weak hand | A♠K♥ vs 7♦2♣ | 67% / 33% |
Six rules come out of this table:
- A bigger pair is a 4-to-1 favourite over a smaller pair.
- A pair against two overcards is roughly a coin flip — slightly in the pair’s favour.
- A pair against one overcard is about 70/30.
- Two high cards against two lower cards is about 60/40.
- Being dominated is a disaster: sharing a card with a better kicker leaves you around 26%.
- Even the worst hand has a third: A-K is only a 2-to-1 favourite over 7-2 offsuit.
Coin flips in detail
“Coin flip” is poker shorthand for a pair against two overcards. It’s close to 50/50, but not quite — and the small differences add up.
| Pair | vs | Equity (pair / overs) |
|---|---|---|
| Q♦Q♣ | A♠K♥ | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Q♦Q♣ | A♠K♠ (suited) | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| J♠J♥ | A♦K♣ | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| 8♠8♥ | A♦K♣ | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| 2♦2♣ | A♠K♥ | 53.0% / 47.0% |
Two things stand out. First, suited A-K gains about 3% against a pair — the flush adds real equity. Second, small pairs are weaker flippers than big pairs, because the overcards can make straights and the pair is easier to counterfeit. Deuces are only a 53/47 favourite.
Domination: why A-Q is a trap against A-K
When two hands share a card, the one with the better kicker is usually a big favourite:
| Matchup | Equity |
|---|---|
| A♠K♥ vs A♦Q♣ | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| A♠K♥ vs K♦Q♣ | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| J♠J♥ vs A♦J♣ | 69.6% / 30.4% |
The dominated hand needs to hit its kicker without the other hand improving, and a lot of the time both hands pair the shared card. That’s why hands like A-J and K-Q, which look strong, are dangerous when a tight player puts in a lot of money — they’re often up against the hands that dominate them. The starting hands lesson covers this for opening ranges.
Other matchups worth knowing
| Matchup | Equity |
|---|---|
| A♠A♥ vs 7♦6♦ | 77.0% / 23.0% |
| Q♠Q♥ vs J♦J♣ | 81.3% / 18.7% |
| A♠Q♠ vs K♦J♦ | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| K♠Q♠ vs A♦J♣ | 44.2% / 55.8% |
| J♠T♠ vs 9♦9♣ | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| 7♠6♠ vs A♦K♥ | 42.3% / 57.7% |
The last two show how well suited connectors hold up. 7♠6♠ has over 42% against A-K, and J♠T♠ is almost level with pocket nines. This is why suited connectors are a fine hand to get all-in with when you’re short-stacked and the other player’s range is wide, but not a hand to call a big raise with for value.
Against more than one player
Equity drops fast in multiway pots. Here are pocket aces and pocket jacks against random hands:
| Opponents | A♠A♥ | J♠J♥ |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85% | 78% |
| 2 | 73% | 61% |
| 3 | 64% | 49% |
| 4 | 56% | 40% |
| 5 | 49% | 33% |
Pocket aces are the best hand in poker, but against five random hands they win less than half the time. Pocket jacks go from a big favourite to an underdog by three opponents. (These are simulated to within about ±0.2%.) Read more in multiway pots.
Putting it to use
These numbers matter most when you’re deciding whether to call an all-in. Say the pot is 10 big blinds after an opponent shoves for 20 more, and you hold Q-Q. You need 20 ÷ (10 + 20 + 20) = 40% equity to call.
| Opponent’s shoving range | Q♠Q♥ equity | Decision |
|---|---|---|
| T-T+, A-Q+ (48 combos) | 55% | Clear call |
| K-K+, A-K (28 combos) | 40% | Break-even |
| K-K+ only (12 combos) | 19% | Fold |
Against the tight range, the A-K combos (where Q-Q has about 57%) are balanced out by K-K and A-A (where it has about 19%). Add the hands Q-Q beats easily — T-T, J-J and A-Q — and the call becomes clear.
The decision isn’t about one hand — it’s about the range your opponent could have. See thinking in ranges and push/fold charts for tournament spots.
Quick questions
Is A-K vs Q-Q really a coin flip? Close to it: 43% vs 57% offsuit, 46% vs 54% suited. Over many flips, the pair wins a little more often.
Why don’t the percentages add up to 100 in some calculators? Some list ties separately. We split ties half-and-half, so every row here adds up to 100%.
What’s the biggest preflop favourite? A pair against a hand that shares one of its cards. A♠A♥ against A♦7♣ wins 92.8% of the time — the ace-seven almost always needs a straight, a flush or two more sevens to win.
Test any matchup yourself in the odds calculator, or read the theory in Expected Value and Pot Odds and Outs.
#maths#equity#preflop#tournaments
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