Blog
ICM and Final-Table Deals: Chip Chop vs ICM Chop
Three-handed with money on the line and someone suggests a deal. How chip chops and ICM chops work, worked examples, and why the chip leader should be careful.
By PokerLevelUp Team · · Updated · 4 min read
Late in a tournament, players sometimes agree to split the remaining prize money instead of playing on. The two common methods give different answers — and knowing why matters, whether you’re the chip leader or the short stack.
The example
Three players are left. Stacks: 50,000, 30,000 and 20,000. Prizes still to pay: $5,000, $3,000 and $2,000.
Chip chop
Everyone is guaranteed third-place money. The rest is shared by chip count.
- Guaranteed: $2,000 each, so $6,000 is paid; $4,000 is left.
- The leader has 50% of the chips: $2,000 + $2,000 = $4,000
- 30% stack: $2,000 + $1,200 = $3,200
- 20% stack: $2,000 + $800 = $2,800
ICM chop
The Independent Chip Model works out how likely each stack is to finish in each place, then values them. Plug the stacks and payouts into our ICM calculator:
| Stack | Chip % | Chip chop | ICM chop |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50,000 | 50% | $4,000 | $3,839 |
| 30,000 | 30% | $3,200 | $3,275 |
| 20,000 | 20% | $2,800 | $2,886 |
The chip leader gets less under ICM, and the short stacks get more.
How ICM gets those numbers
ICM makes one simple assumption: your chance of winning the tournament equals your share of the chips. So the 50,000 stack wins 50% of the time, the 30,000 stack 30% and the 20,000 stack 20%.
For second place, it asks: if someone else wins, how likely are you to beat the remaining player? It uses the same chip-share idea on the stacks that are left. For example, if the 50,000 stack wins, the 30,000 stack beats the 20,000 stack 30 ÷ 50 = 60% of the time.
Putting all the finishing orders together gives:
| Stack | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | ICM value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50,000 | 50.0% | 33.9% | 16.1% | $3,839 |
| 30,000 | 30.0% | 37.5% | 32.5% | $3,275 |
| 20,000 | 20.0% | 28.6% | 51.4% | $2,886 |
Check the leader: 50% × $5,000 + 33.9% × $3,000 + 16.1% × $2,000 ≈ $3,839. You don’t need to do this by hand — the calculator does it for you — but it helps to know there’s no magic involved.
Why the leader gets less
Doubling your chips doesn’t double your prize. The leader can win at most $5,000, however many chips they have, while the short stack is already guaranteed $2,000. Each extra chip is worth less money the more of them you own. A chip chop ignores that and overpays the leader.
That’s why short stacks often propose chip chops — and why leaders should run the ICM numbers first.
A four-handed example
The same pattern holds with more players. Four left, stacks 40,000 / 25,000 / 20,000 / 15,000, prizes $5,000 / $3,000 / $2,000 / $1,000.
A chip chop guarantees everyone $1,000 and splits the remaining $7,000 by chips:
| Stack | Chip chop | ICM chop | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40,000 | $3,800 | $3,409 | −$391 |
| 25,000 | $2,750 | $2,815 | +$65 |
| 20,000 | $2,400 | $2,549 | +$149 |
| 15,000 | $2,050 | $2,226 | +$176 |
Both columns add up to $11,000, but the leader gives up almost $400 under ICM, and the shortest stack gains the most.
Heads-up: the two methods agree
With two players left, ICM and a chip chop give the same answer. Stacks 60,000 and 40,000, prizes $5,000 and $3,000:
- Both get $3,000; the remaining $2,000 splits 60/40.
- $4,200 and $3,800 — under either method.
That’s because with only two players, your chance of winning really is just your chip share, so there’s nothing left for ICM to correct.
Leaving something to play for
Many deals don’t split everything. A common version keeps some money — and the trophy — for the winner, and chops the rest.
Take the three-handed example again, but keep $1,000 back. ICM on prizes of $4,000 / $3,000 / $2,000 gives $3,339, $2,975 and $2,686, and the three players then play on for the last $1,000.
Before you agree to a deal
- Check the rules. Some events don’t allow deals, and online sites handle them through their own tools. In live events, the tournament director usually has to approve and record it.
- ICM ignores skill. If you’re clearly the strongest player, or the blinds are about to become huge, you might ask for more (or play on).
- ICM ignores position and blinds. A short stack about to post the big blind is in a worse spot than the raw numbers suggest.
- Leave something to play for. Many deals keep a small amount — and the trophy — for the winner.
ICM when you’re not dealing
Even with no deal on the table, the same idea shapes how you play. Because busting costs you more than doubling up gains, you should take fewer thin risks near pay jumps — especially with a medium stack when a shorter stack is close to busting. That’s the heart of bubble play and push/fold decisions late in a tournament, and you can drill them in the push/fold trainer.
Learn the strategy side in ICM and Final Tables: Tournament Equity Explained and Final Table Strategy.
#tournaments#icm#tools
Practise what you just read
Get the weekly level-up
One short email a week: a new lesson, a hand to think about and a tool tip. No spam, unsubscribe any time.
By subscribing you agree to our privacy policy.