The Poker Outs Chart You'll Actually Use

You don’t need a 20-row chart. Almost every Hold’em draw falls into a handful of out counts. Here are the exact numbers, with the rule of 2 and 4 estimate next to them, followed by how to count your outs properly and how to turn the chart into a call-or-fold decision.

The chart

Outs	Typical draw	Flop → turn	Turn → river	Flop → river	Rule of 2 / 4
2	Pocket pair to a set	4.3%	4.3%	8.4%	4% / 8%
3	One overcard	6.4%	6.5%	12.5%	6% / 12%
4	Gutshot	8.5%	8.7%	16.5%	8% / 16%
5	Pair to two pair or trips	10.6%	10.9%	20.4%	10% / 20%
6	Two overcards	12.8%	13.0%	24.1%	12% / 24%
8	Open-ended straight draw	17.0%	17.4%	31.5%	16% / 32%
9	Flush draw	19.1%	19.6%	35.0%	18% / 35%*
10	Gutshot + two overcards	21.3%	21.7%	38.4%	20% / 38%*
12	Flush draw + gutshot	25.5%	26.1%	45.0%	24% / 44%*
15	Flush draw + open-ender	31.9%	32.6%	54.1%	30% / 53%*

* Using the adjusted ×4 rule: subtract one for each out above 8.

“Flop → river” assumes you see both cards without facing another bet — usually only when someone is all-in.

Where the numbers come from

On the flop you can see five cards (your two plus three on the board), so 47 cards are unseen. On the turn you’ve seen six, so 46 are left. Your opponents’ cards count as unseen, because you don’t know what they are.

Flop → turn: outs ÷ 47. With 9 outs: 9 ÷ 47 = 19.1%.
Turn → river: outs ÷ 46. With 9 outs: 9 ÷ 46 = 19.6%.
Flop → river: 1 − (chance of missing twice). With 9 outs: 1 − (38/47 × 37/46) = 35.0%.

That last line is why the plain ×4 rule overshoots on big draws: ×4 on 15 outs says 60%, but the real figure is 54.1%. You can’t hit an out twice, so the misses shrink faster than a straight multiplication assumes.

How to count outs for common draws

Draw	How to count	Outs
Flush draw	13 cards of the suit − the 4 you can see	9
Open-ended straight draw	Four cards at each end	8
Gutshot	Four of the one rank that fills the gap	4
Double gutshot	Two gaps, four cards each	8
Pocket pair to a set	Two cards of your rank left	2
Two overcards	Three of each rank	6
Flush draw + open-ender	9 + 8 − 2 cards counted twice	15

The last row is where most mistakes happen. With a flush draw and an open-ender, two of your straight cards are also of your suit. They’re already in the 9 flush outs, so you don’t count them again: 9 + 6 = 15, not 17.

Backdoor draws — needing both the turn and the river, such as three to a flush on the flop — are worth roughly one extra out. A backdoor flush comes in about 4.2% of the time (10/47 × 9/46).

Count clean outs, not all outs

An out only counts if it gives you the best hand. Discount outs that:

Help your opponent too. A card that completes your straight but puts a fourth heart on board may give someone a flush.
Are already accounted for. Don’t count the same card twice — a card that makes your flush and your straight is one out.
Only make a second-best hand. Pairing your low card on a board where your opponent likely has an overpair isn’t an out.

Example. You hold 9♥8♥ on a 7♠6♠2♦ flop. Any 5 or 10 makes your straight: 8 outs. But the 5♠ and 10♠ put a third spade on the board, and an opponent with two spades would make a flush. Against a likely flush draw, count 6 clean outs, not 8.

When in doubt, knock an out or two off the count.

Use it at the table

Count your clean outs.
Read the chance of hitting from the chart (or ×2).
Compare it with the equity the bet requires — your pot odds. The pot odds calculator does this for you.

Worked example 1: a turn bet

On the turn the pot is 20 and your opponent bets 10. You have a flush draw — 9 outs, 19.6% to hit on the river.

You call 10 to win 30 (the 20 already there plus their 10).
Required equity: 10 ÷ (30 + 10) = 25%.
You have 19.6%, so calling straight away loses money.

You can still call if you’ll win enough extra when you hit — your implied odds. Here you’d need to win about 11 more on the river, on average, to break even. Against a player who pays off big bets, that’s realistic; against one who folds whenever the flush card lands, it isn’t.

Worked example 2: an all-in on the flop

The pot is 50 and your opponent moves all-in for 50. You’ll see both the turn and the river, so use the flop → river column.

Required equity: 50 ÷ (100 + 50) = 33.3%.
Flush draw + open-ender (15 outs): 54.1% — an easy call. You’re actually the favourite.
Open-ender alone (8 outs): 31.5% — a slight fold, unless dead money or fold equity changes the picture.

Outs in Omaha

In Pot-Limit Omaha you hold four cards, so draws are bigger — a wrap straight draw can have up to 20 outs — and many of them are shared with opponents. The chart above still gives the odds for a given number of outs, but counting clean outs matters even more. See drawing in PLO.

Quick questions

Is the rule of 2 and 4 accurate enough? Yes, for up to 8 outs. Above that, use the adjusted ×4 rule (subtract one per out above 8) or read the chart.

Should I count outs to a pair? Only if a pair is likely to be the best hand — against one opponent on a dry board, sometimes; against several players, rarely.

Do I count my opponent’s possible cards as seen? No. You only know your own cards and the board, so everything else is unseen.

Practise until it’s automatic with the outs trainer, and check any hand in the odds calculator.

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