PLO Hand Values: Why Equities Run So Close

In Hold’em, pocket aces are an 85% favourite against a random hand. In Omaha, the best starting hand — double-suited aces and kings — is only about a 70% favourite. Hand values in PLO are compressed: starting hands run close together, made hands are stronger, and draws can be favourites over made hands. This lesson uses equity numbers we’ve calculated for every example so you can recalibrate your instincts.

Key takeaways

• Preflop equities run close: A♠A♥K♠K♥ is about 71% against a random hand; a weak rainbow A-A hand about 61%.
• Good rundowns like J-T-9-8 double-suited are roughly even with rainbow aces.
• On the flop, a 20-out wrap is a slight favourite over top set.
• One pair — even aces — rarely wins a big pot in PLO.
• Draw to the nuts: second-best flushes and straights lose big pots.

Preflop: close races everywhere

All figures below are heads-up all-in equities before the flop, from our own simulations.

Hand	Against	Equity
A♠A♥K♠K♥ (AAKK double-suited)	A random hand	~71%
A♠A♥7♦2♣ (aces with no support)	A random hand	~61%
J♦T♦9♣8♣ (double-suited rundown)	A random hand	~56%
A♠A♥K♠K♥	J♦T♦9♣8♣	~61% / 39%
A♠A♥7♣2♦	J♦T♦9♥8♥	~50% / 50%

For comparison, in Hold’em A-A is about 85% against a random hand. In Omaha, even the best hand isn’t far ahead, and “junk aces” are a coin flip against a strong rundown.

Why this happens

With four cards, each player has six two-card combinations. That gives every hand many ways to make pairs, straights and flushes. The best hand before the flop has much less of an edge because the “worse” hand has so many chances to improve.

It also means multiway pots are common — and in a four-way pot, even A♠A♥ K♦Q♣ has only about 33% equity against three random hands.

After the flop: draws can be favourites

This is the biggest shock for Hold’em players.

99AK J1076

982

Flop

Top set of nines against J-T-7-6, which has a 20-out wrap (any Q, J, T, 7, 6 or 5 makes a straight). The wrap is about a 54% favourite. The set needs the board to pair to win.

And a monster draw can be a favourite even with the set’s full-house outs counted:

99KQ A1076

982

Flop

A♥T♥7♦6♣ has a nut flush draw plus a wrap — about 21 winning outs on the turn — and is about 54% against top set.

One pair doesn’t win big pots

In Hold’em, an overpair is often good. In Omaha:

• A♠A♣ with no other help against top two pair on 9-8-2: about 29%.
• A-A against a set: about 15%.
• Top two pair against a set: about 15%.

So one pair — even aces — is a hand that wins small pots and loses big ones.

The nuts matter

When several players are drawing, the best possible hand often shows up. A flush that isn’t the nut flush can be expensive: with K♥Q♥ against A♥J♥ on a board with two hearts, the king-high flush draw has only about 23% equity — it’s drawing to a flush that often loses.

This leads to the central principle of Omaha strategy:

Play hands that make the nuts, and be careful with hands that make second-best.

Quick check

Roughly how much equity does A♠A♥K♠K♥ have against a random PLO hand?

About 85%About 71%About 55%About 50%

Check answer

About 71% — much less than aces in Hold'em, because every Omaha hand has six two-card combinations.

Quick check

On a 9♥ 8♣ 2♦ flop, who is favourite: top set of nines or J-T-7-6 with a 20-out wrap?

Top set, by a lotThe wrap, slightlyExactly evenNeither can win

Check answer

The 20-out wrap is about 54% against top set in our example.

Next up: which hands to play — PLO Starting Hands.